Assessing microfinance outcomes for women: A practitioner's approach to client needs in Central Asia

In a rapidly changing world, vulnerable populations in emerging countries face a double challenge: adapting to climate change and accessing opportunities in the digital transformation. The Grameen Crédit Agricole Foundation is a multi-business operator dedicated to the global fight against poverty by promoting financial inclusion and social impact entrepreneurship. The Foundation supports financial service providers (FSPs) and projects that strengthen rural economies worldwide, prioritizing women's entrepreneurship as an essential lever for development.

To understand the needs of its stakeholders, question the outcomes of their investments, and better support their local partners through these transitions, the Foundation partnered with leonardo. impact to conduct a rigorous gender-lens needs and outcome assessment across Central Asia.

"Working with leonardo has been a 10/10 experience. Their team demonstrated strong adaptability to our specific requirements, showing a level of flexibility that made our collaboration both efficient and pleasant. The research outcomes have proven valuable for our partners, providing them with actionable insights directly informing their strategic decisions, budget allocations, and action plans."‍

‍Maya Azcona, Technical Assistance Program Officer at Grameen Crédit Agricole Foundation (GCAF)
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The Partners: Grameen Crédit Agricole Foundation and OXUS

The Grameen Crédit Agricole Foundation operates as an investor, lender, technical assistance coordinator, and fund advisor. Its core activities consist in financing and supporting organizations that serve vulnerable populations, with a specific focus on women and rural populations, to foster inclusive finance and build robust local economies.

In Central Asia, the Foundation partners with the OXUS network to bring this vision to life:

OXUS Tajikistan (OTJ): Originating from a 1997 microfinance initiative of the Agency for Technical Cooperation and Development (ACTED), OTJ provides responsible microloans and targeted financial operations to support the working poor and unbanked communities across the country. Following its recent transformation into a micro-deposit organization (as of the end of 2025), OTJ is expanding its range of financial services by introducing savings and deposit products as well.

“Partnering with leonardo on our women client study was an invaluable experience for our team. Their team brought deep expertise in designing an inclusive, bias-aware questionnaire. They handled every phase of the study with cultural sensitivity and professional rigor. Most importantly, the leonardo team took time to walk us through the ‘why’ behind the numbers, giving us a clear understanding of the results.”

Vatansho Vatanshoev, CEO Oxus Tajikistan (OTJ)

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OXUS Kyrgyzstan (OKG): Operating across five regions, OKG serves over 11,000 households with diverse lending products that support agriculture, small businesses, education, and energy-efficient home improvements. Since its establishment in 2006 by OXUS Group and Acted, OKG has grown into one of the leading socially oriented microfinance institutions in Kyrgyzstan, focused on improving livelihoods and expanding financial inclusion for underserved populations. With over half of its clients being women and a strong presence in rural communities, the institution plays a key role in supporting low-income households, farmers, and entrepreneurs traditionally excluded from the banking system. OKG is recognized for its responsible and transparent approach to microfinance, commitment to client protection, digitalization efforts, and promotion of green financing solutions that contribute to sustainable community development.

“Our partnership with leonardo on the Women Client Study was a valuable experience. The survey provided important insights into our clients’ satisfaction and helped us better understand their needs, expectations, and perceptions of our services. The results were useful for identifying areas for improvement and supporting future improvements in client experience and service delivery. It was especially meaningful to hear direct feedback from women clients and gain a deeper understanding of how our work impacts them. We appreciate leonardo’s professional approach and collaboration throughout the process.”

Aimonchok Zhuzupbekova, ESG Manager Oxus Kyrgyzstan (OKG)
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The Challenge: Using perception surveys to question outcomes and further capture clients’ needs

For years, the microfinance sector has often measured success simply by counting the number of loans disbursed or the percentage of female clients reached. However, these output metrics do not automatically guarantee a better life for the borrower. While rigorous scientific methods like Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) have provided valuable insights into microfinance outcomes, they often yield mixed results—reflecting the genuine complexity of impact across diverse contexts. RCTs remain essential for understanding causal effects, though they are resource-intensive and not a tool at the disposal of practitioners.

Qualitative and perception-based studies can offer valuable insights into household-level experiences and evolving client needs. Although these approaches have their own limitations (e.g. they are susceptible to social desirability bias, recall bias, and challenges in establishing causality), they also enable field practitioners to listen directly to their clients. In partnership with leonardo., Grameen Crédit Agricole Foundation and Oxus chose to use perception surveys to question outcomes and further capture clients’ needs.

Such surveys allow:

• Getting more data on the nuance of microfinance: Broader research confirms that microfinance alone is rarely transformative enough to lift a family out of poverty. Its impact on core poverty indicators, such as income or spending, can be modest and variable.
• Collecting data to mitigate the risk of over-indebtedness: Microcredit is not universally beneficial. Highly effective annual interest rates, rigid repayment schedules, or weak underwriting practices can strain a family's financial stability, underscoring the need to track both positive outcomes and potential financial friction.

‍In addition, beyond measuring outcomes, FSPs need practical information to understand client satisfaction and what their clients currently lack, whether it is savings products, micro-insurance, business monitoring or targeted financial literacy training

‍The methodology: Balancing standardization with customization

To generate actionable, high-integrity data, we deployed a targeted impact and needs assessment. A core value proposition of this approach was the ability to customize the research to the specific context and requirements of the project, rather than enforcing rigid, pre-existing frameworks that might not fit the client's exact needs.

“leonardo. distinguishes itself through its flexible methodology that enables Financial Service Providers to deeply engage with outcome measurement processes. We successfully collected valuable outcome indicators that provide insight into women's perceptions regarding how the FSP's products and services impact their lives. Additionally, this process established a foundation for meaningful dialogue with the FSP on these topics, creating opportunities for future client-centered collaborations.”‍

Edouard Sers, Head of Risk, Compliance and Impact at GCAF

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1. A tailored mix of indicators:  The assessment found the optimal balance between standardization and customization. It utilized globally accepted indicators aligned with the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to ensure comparability, while integrating custom questions designed specifically for OXUS affiliates to conduct a needs assessment. Designing survey questions in collaboration with OXUS and leonardo. allowed the Foundation to gather the information that was most helpful for future product design.

2. End-to-End independent data collection:
To ensure complete objectivity, the data collection was managed end-to-end through independent local market research agencies (such as M-Vector). In Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, over 530 phone surveys were conducted by external enumerators. This independent process provided a secure, confidential environment for clients to share their authentic experiences and financial realities.

3. Double verification and AI-Powered audits:
Measuring change accurately requires strict data validation. Following manual quality checks by the local agencies, all data flowed into leonardo’s Impact Management Platform (IMP). An AI-powered data quality audit evaluated the representativity, consistency, and integrity of the results through statistical and logical tests, ensuring the findings were unbiased and ready for strategic decision-making.

Findings: The reality of microfinance in Central Asia 

The assessment delivered a nuanced picture of how microfinance operates on the ground, highlighting steady progress, specific capacity-building needs, and operational friction points:

• Consistent income stabilization: Microfinance provides reliable stability for clients in the region. 
  
  • In Tajikistan, 90% of clients reported positive income growth (76% describing it as improving "a little" and 14% as improving "a lot"). 
  • Similarly, in Kyrgyzstan, 83% reported income growth, with only a marginal 3% reporting a worsened financial situation.
• Varying financial resilience and deposit needs: Resilience to economic shocks varies across the region. 
  
  • In Tajikistan, resilience is generally strong, with 79% of clients able to easily cope with a large unexpected expense. While 89% of these Tajik clients currently do not have a savings account, 82% expressed a clear interest in opening one, citing trust in OXUS as the primary motivator. 
  • In Kyrgyzstan, only 38% can easily cope with unexpected expenses, leaving 33% in a precarious "neutral" zone, underscoring a need for financial safety nets.
• Control over financial decision-making: Women’s empowerment findings highlight both progress and remaining risks in financial decision-making and loan control. 
  
  • In Kyrgyzstan, 15% of women remain excluded from decision-making regarding finances and the use of their loans. This exclusion is pronounced among women with lower levels of education (25%). In addition, 7% of women are not the actual beneficiaries of their own loan, indicating that access to credit does not always translate into personal financial control.
  • In Tajikistan, 11% of women remain excluded from decision-making on finances and loan use, with the challenge being more visible in rural areas (15%). Furthermore, 5% of women are not the direct beneficiaries of their own loans.
• Financial confidence improvement:
  
  • In Tajikistan, a major positive outcome is that 94% of women using financial services report increased confidence in making financial decisions independently, suggesting that access to financial services can significantly strengthen self-confidence and financial agency over time. In Kyrgyzstan, the percentage of women reporting increased confidence is lower than in Tajikistan, while positive (78%).  
• Targeted training demands: By asking clients exactly what they wanted to learn, the assessment pinpointed specific knowledge gaps rather than relying on generic assumptions. While basic financial literacy was a universal priority, regional needs varied: 
  
  • 31% of clients in Kyrgyzstan requested education (prioritizing investment and credit management), whereas the 
  • 13% seeking training in Tajikistan focused heavily on budgeting and business management.
• Operational friction and financial worry: While overall satisfaction is high, the data identified specific areas causing unintended stress. 
  
  • In Kyrgyzstan, 11% of clients reported an increase in financial worry since taking on their loan, a problem more commonly associated with agricultural (agro) loans. Qualitative feedback indicated that this stress was occasionally tied to schedule mismatches (e.g., payment schedules not aligning with salary dates) and concerns over interest rates. 
  • In Tajikistan, minor frictions included unexpected financial shocks from strict late-submission fines.
• Baseline climate exposure: Currently, environmental vulnerability is low across the portfolio, with only 3% of clients in Kyrgyzstan and 1% in Tajikistan reporting exposure to extreme weather over the last 24 months. 
  
  • However, for those affected in Kyrgyzstan, agricultural hazards such as frost and drought directly reduced crop yields and halted work, suggesting a potential future need for adaptation advice or weather-indexed products. 
  • Nevertheless, it is important to note that around 29% of respondents in Kyrgyzstan reported needing additional environmental training and capacity-building on sustainability topics. This might signal an imbalance between the reported climate risk exposure and the knowledge about the topic. Raising awareness on the topic would address the environmental training gap and improve the understanding of climate risks. 
• Quality customer relations and client loyalty: The Net Promoter Score (NPS) highlights strong advocacy across both portfolios but points to specific operational friction. 
  
  • In Tajikistan, a highly positive NPS of 56.20 reflects deep client loyalty and validates high satisfaction with loan sizes and credit officers, though open feedback noted interest rates and fines as areas for improvement. 
  • In Kyrgyzstan, the score stands at a positive 26.14. While clients show high trust in credit officers (94%), this score trails global averages due to friction points like digital usability hurdles, unclear fees, and rigid repayment schedules.

The Way Forward

By utilizing a highly customized approach to uncover actual outcomes and needs, the Foundation and OXUS now possess actionable intelligence to further support their clients. Moving forward, the data points to a few strategic opportunities:

• Expand product offerings: The data reveals a clear opportunity to move beyond a credit-only model. Expanding access to small-balance savings accounts (highly requested in Tajikistan) and exploring micro-insurance or flexible payment systems will help bolster the portfolio's vulnerable segments.
• Deploy targeted capacity building: FSPs can directly address the training demands uncovered in the needs assessment by integrating light-touch financial education into the loan cycle, focusing specifically on the requested topics of budgeting, basic investment, and credit management.
• Design products adapted to women’s needs: designing products and services that specifically address the needs and barriers expressed by Oxus’ women clients is expected to increase outreach to women while increasing the likelihood of generating positive outcomes
• Refine operational terms: Addressing the minor operational frictions, such as aligning repayment dates more closely with actual client income cycles (like salary payouts or harvests) and reviewing late-penalty structures, can further reduce client stress, improve loan performance, and elevate overall client satisfaction.

The results of the surveys were shared at the level of GCAF’s and Oxus’ boards of directors and the shareholders, contributing to prioritizing such strategic opportunities in the coming years.

Looking beyond, capturing outcomes and needs through tailored, efficient surveys greatly helped raise awareness among GCAF and Oxus stakeholders of the types of outcomes microfinance can generate and of red flags that require action to reduce the risk of negative impact. It is an invitation to perform additional client surveys to design programs adapted to the needs of women and keep monitoring outcomes.
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“Partnering with GCAF and Oxus has been an energizing and truly collaborative experience for us at leonardo. From the very beginning, their teams demonstrated a deep commitment to understanding women’s lived experiences in the financial sector and to translating those insights into meaningful action. Together, we co-created a flexible yet rigorous approach to outcome measurement, one that not only generated valuable evidence for Financial Service Providers but also strengthened their ability to design more responsive, client-centered products and services for the women they serve.“ ‍

Dr. Jan Moellmann, Co-Founder and CEO of leonardo. impact

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